Series

The Premise Test

A series of short, permanent case studies. Each takes one control — usually one chosen number — and asks the three questions of the canonical definition: Date, Witness, Counterfactual.

Cases are published first as posts and then kept here, unchanged, at a permanent URL, so that they can be cited and linked years later. Every case has the same six parts.

This series is the practice: one control at a time, tested. The reasoning behind the practice is the Articles library — fifty-two articles in a fixed order. The two are read in parallel, not in sequence.

Format §

Title: One line. Names the control, not the lesson.
Problem: The control as it stands: what it says, where it is written, how faithfully it is followed.
Premise: The statement about the world that had to be true for the control to protect — written as one proposition, in the sense of the canonical definition, Section 3.1.
Discussion: The three questions applied: Date, Witness, Counterfactual. What would reveal the premise’s fall, and whether anything currently would.
Conclusion: What the reader can do with one control this week.
Permanent URL: https://silent-expiry.pages.dev/premise-test/NN/ — two-digit sequence number; never reused, never redirected.

Published cases §

Published and scheduled cases
No.	Title	Control	Published	Status
01	The number somebody chose	Any chosen number: a sample size, an interval, a headcount	2026	Scheduled

Numbers are assigned in order of publication. A case is never revised silently: a correction is added beneath the conclusion, dated, with the original text left standing.